Aemet forecasts a warmer and wetter than normal summer for the Canary Islands

A summer above the climatic average

Spain's State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) considers it more likely than not that this summer in the Canary Islands will be both warmer and wetter than normal. The agency nonetheless stresses that seasonal forecasts should be interpreted "with great caution", as they cannot precisely predict specific events such as heatwaves.

Aemet's territorial delegate in Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Víctor Quintero, told a press conference on Tuesday that models point to above-normal temperatures over the coming weeks, at least through mid-July. For the summer as a whole — covering July and August — there is a greater probability that both temperatures and rainfall will sit above the climatic average.

As for June, with data available up to the 14th, temperatures had been running above normal while rainfall had been sparse and broadly in line with what is typical for the first half of the month.

This outlook forms part of Aemet's seasonal forecast for the June–July–August 2025 period, in which the agency identifies a high probability that mean temperatures across all of Spain will fall in the upper tercile. On precipitation, it points to a greater likelihood of above-average totals — in the upper tercile — driven mainly by isolated convective events.

St John's Eve

For the night of St John's Eve, Aemet had forecast light rain during the afternoon, night and early hours, mainly on the northern slopes of the western islands and Gran Canaria. Precipitation was generally expected to be light, with isolated spells potentially reaching moderate intensity.

A slightly cold and exceptionally wet spring

As context for these forecasts, Quintero reviewed the climatological spring — March, April and May — describing it as slightly cold and very wet, making it the wettest spring in Aemet's reference period.

The average temperature for the quarter was 16.4°C, an anomaly of -0.3°C, placing it in the cold category, though not among the coldest on record. Below-normal temperatures affected most of the western islands and Gran Canaria, with the exception of La Gomera, while the eastern islands showed a different pattern.

The character of the quarter was shaped primarily by March, a very cold month with a mean temperature of 14.6°C and an anomaly of -1.2°C. That month saw a minimum temperature of -5.6°C recorded at Izaña. "Every Canarian felt the cold, wherever they were," Quintero said.

April was slightly warm, due to an intense spell of high temperatures between the 15th and the 19th, with a mean of 16.7°C and an anomaly of +0.2°C. May followed a similar pattern, with another warm episode between the 20th and 26th and a mean of 18.1°C. During those spells, maximum temperatures reached 37.9°C in La Aldea de San Nicolás and 35.2°C in Tías, Lanzarote. April recorded 21 tropical nights, most of them falling during the warm spell.

The wettest spring on record

Mean accumulated rainfall over the quarter reached 180 millimetres, some 347% above normal. Storms Regina and, above all, Therese — both in March — defined the season's character. Therese formed in the waters around the Canary Islands and brought substantial rainfall as a succession of fronts moved through.

March was extremely wet, with mean precipitation of 144.6 millimetres, 456% above the normal value. April added 23.9 millimetres, 165% above average, while May accumulated 11.5 millimetres, 235% above normal. The highest totals were recorded in areas including Roque de los Muchachos, San Mateo, San Bartolomé de Tirajana and El Paso.